THE POSTER RUN

The dull thwung of tubular steel peels a requiem

Over a beer sodden ocean, carpet flecked with whitebait butts

The pub so recently a piazza, a black tomb

Amplifiers growing cold already on their aluminium beds

Rocking cross-town, not enough traffic to trip lights

 Red as the singer’s raw throat

The drummer brooding over a missed anticipation in the second verse

A nurse in a sixth floor window sipping bitter coffee to the slow beep of heart monitors

Her anonymous patient dreaming of cherries and the smell of a new pencil-case in a long ago

primary school when pens had nibs.

While far below through the ink

Glue-pot in hand the stink of urine clawing at him

He waits till the chuckles of revellers to fade like a loveless marriage

Before emerging unhurried but with the seconds carefully counted crumbs

Wipes his brush quick and smooth over last week’s labours

Seizes a still warm sheet

Spreads his wingspan and presses his whole body into it

For a moment one with the chipped bricks, part of the wall itself, consummating

Then stepping back conception and birth flattened into unity

Allowing himself just a second or two to admire his work

For he has a bootful left to do and only

A fool works after dawn.

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DETAILS FOR MY AUTHOR TALK CUSTOMS HOUSE SEP 16

detailscustoms

THE MONSTER’S BACK: AFL UMPIRES FAVOUR VICTORIAN TEAMS: IT’S A FACT

Those of you who have followed my statistical analysis over many years will know that it has long been established that Victorian teams get a better deal from umpires. Essentially Vic teams at home get a large free kick advantage when playing visiting Non-Vic Teams yet are only slightly disadvantaged when playing away from Victoria. For many years I felt this was the case but it was still gratifying to see it supported in black and white stats. At the half-way point of this season it looked like things might be ready to change. Vic teams had started the season pretty close to the Non-Vic teams but as the pointy end of the season approaches the stats have reverted to the usual bias. NON-VIC teams are getting smashed when playing in Victoria, Vic teams are not being hurt when playing away.

Whether one simply looks at the percentage of free kicks paid to home and visitors, or at games where one team gets a significant free kick advantage (I define this as 58% or more to one team, 42% or less to the other) it sucks to be a Non-Vic travelling team.

So here are the basics

GAMES ON NEUTRAL TERRITORY (ie: where teams from the same city play one another):HOME TEAM 50.5% of frees AWAY TEAM 49.5%

GAMES OF SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE 17: in favour of Home team 10, Away team 7

VIC HOME TEAM V NON-VIC AWAY HOME VIC 54.7% AWAY NON VIC 45.3%

GAMES OF SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE 14: in favour of Home team 11, Away team 3

NON VIC HOME V NON VIC AWAY HOME 53.8% AWAY 46.2%

GAMES OF SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE 6: in favour of Home Team 6 Away team 0

NON VIC HOME v VIC AWAY NON VIC HOME 51.5% VIC AWAY 48.5%

GAMES OF SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE 9: Home Non-Vic 6 Away Vic 3

The figures show that when there is no city difference the split between home and away is negligible. When Vic teams travel they are slightly disadvantaged but nowhere near as disadvantaged as non-Vic teams. Have a look at the significant games- when non-Vic teams play away there have been 20 significant games and the split is 17-3 in favour of the home teams. FACT: AWAY NON VIC TEAMS ARE BEING SMASHED BY UMPIRES.

Surely it is time for Campbell and his crew to address this and give non-Victorian teams the “level-playing field” Eddie and his cronies are always going on about. On the very few occasions Victorian teams get hurt when playing away you never hear the end of it. For Non-Vic supporters we know in advance we are going to have to be a 5 goal better side to win by 1. Isn’t it enough advantage that Victorian teams get a Home Grand Final!

UPCOMING APPEARANCES

Hi Suburban Soldiers, Facebook mates and stray web-browsers looking for stuff on the pugnacious opening left-hander and getting my blog instead.  A few live appearances and shows have been locked into place recently.  Hopefully I might see you at one of more of these.

First off, next Thursday July 30 at Berkelouw Leichhardt, Sydney 6-8 PM I’ll be joining Stuart Coupe, author of the soon to be published bio on Australia’s most interesting entertainment entrepreneur, Michael Gudinski.  Stuart and  will talk rock’n’roll, crime (sometimes the two aren’t far apart), and the chances of the Sydney Swans in 2015.  I’ll be more than happy to sign any of my books or cds including the recently published Before It Breaks.

Then  Sat 5 September  I’m honoured to have been invited to the BRISBANE WRITERS FESTIVAL where I will be involved in panels in the morning and afternoon.  I know Scott Schilling will be trying to make it and hope a few other readers will come say hello.

Lunchtime (approx 12:1.30) Wed September 16 I am doing an author talk at Customs House Library near Circular Quay in Sydney.  Entry is free. Tony Durant is going to play some acoustic guitar and I’ll talk about crime writing and my new novel, sing a couple of songs and perform an epic poem or two.

OCTOBER 22-24 (Thurs through Sat) I’ll be doing my acoustic style show at DOWNSTAIRS HIS MAJESTY’S THEATRE.  Tony Durant and Phil Bailey will join me in loads of songs but I will also do readings from various pieces of mine and some comic sketches with the amazing Damien O’Doherty. This will be a wonderful intimate show with the opportunity to have a meal while we entertain you. Don’t leave it too late to book, capacity is limited.

THU OCTOBER 29 I am back in Sydney doing pretty much the same show at the Django Bar in Marrickville although I doubt Damien and Phil will make it over for that, however Bill Beare and Lloyd Gyi may do me the honour. Those who came along last time will know what a fabulous night it turned out to be and I hope to see many of you there again.

BEFORE IT BREAKS AT #3 IN TOP 100

breaks amazonA big thrill today as  my Broome based novel has elbowed its way into #3 position on Kindle Amazon. I can’t thank you all enough for your support and hope you keep encouraging more readers to try a little taste of the “other” Dave Warner.  Don’t forget City of Light is also available in e-book format. Queensland readers please come and say hi at Brisbane Writers Festival first weekend of September: will post my sessions when I have more details. Sydney readers come and join my free lunchtime author talk at Customs House Library Wed Sep 16 (Tony Durant will be joining me for a few songs too)

HOME TOWN UMPIRING 6 YEARS ON

Six years since the ground-breaking Dave Warner home-town umpiring analysis I’ve gone through the figures again to see if there is still any bias in AFL UMPIRING favouring Home Teams. Look up my old blog and you’ll see my figures then showed pronounced home town bias especially against non-Victorian teams playing away from home.  In summary for 2009, games between neutral teams (ie: teams from the same city playing one another) were evenly umpired: home teams got 51% of free kicks.  Vic teams hosting interstate teams got 54% of frees – a substantial number, as did Non-Vic Teams hosting Non-Vic Teams.  Non-Vic Teams hosting Vic teams got around 51%, very little advantage.   Importantly the games where there was a SIGNIFICANT difference between frees paid to teams (ie: a big imbalance) showed a huge bias to home-teams, especially against Non-Vic Teams playing away.

So here at the half-way point of 2015 I have run the numbers to see if anything’s changed. Answer – a little.  Neutral games (ie games between teams from the same city) are at 50.5 % for the Home team. No real bias.   When Vic teams host Non-Vic Teams this jumps to 53.4% and is almost identical to when Non-Vic Teams host Vic Teams 53.3%.   Once again the teams most disadvantaged are those Non-Vic Teams playing away against other Non-Vic teams. they get only 45.6% of frees compared to the host’s 54.4%.  Significant games – games where one side gets 58% of frees or more, continue the bias. In Vic Home v Non Vic Away, games are running 7-3 in favour of the Home Vic teams.  In Non Vic Home v Non Vic Away significant games run 4-0 in favour of the Home Team. In Non-Vic Teams hosting Vic Teams it’s 6-1 in favour of the Home Teams. All of these numbers suggest strong home-town bias.

IN SUMMARY: HOME TOWN BIAS IN UMPIRING IS REAL. Comparing this year to 6 years ago the major difference is that visiting Vic teams are worse off than were then but the most picked on, deprived teams are still those Non-Vic teams travelling to a Non-Vic location.  We can speculate on why this might be – less away fans at the ground to pressure the umps, a subconscious knowledge of umps that they umpired against the home team when they were last travelling etc.

So maybe umpiring is getting worse – but at least it’s getting worse more evenly which should be some comfort to Non-Vic teams (and doesn’t Eddy belly-ache and moan when Vic teams cop the same treatment non-Vic teams have endured for years!). Mind you I will be very interested to see if this trend continues to the end of the year.  In the last few rounds the bias to Home Vic teams has been very strong and leads one to suspect that things may be reverting to where they were. Time will tell but you’ll find the truth here not with those hacks who need to sell papers to Collingwood fans to survive.

MY NEW BOOK IS OUT! AVAILABLE HARDBACK AND ON-LINE

book sweeps into broome – Community Newspaper Group online story

HERE’S ONE OF THE MANY STORIES THUS FAR ON BEFORE IT BREAKS.